China Dawn: How America Forged China's New Empire
A compilation of the Substack series that explains America's role in building China's global dominance. $5.00 flat fee for the bundle (PDF, ePUB), no subscription required. 2- hour reading time.
The essays in this collection are taken from my Substack, “Future Forwarded,” where I analyze major trends in geopolitics, economics, and technology by placing them within historical context.
The Substack picks apart the through-lines connecting past and present, examining how decisions made today echo patterns from centuries or millennia ago. Sometimes the analyses attempt to gauge where current trajectories might lead. Other essays offer perspective for the generation entering a world that looks increasingly different from the post-World War II order in which I grew up.
Read an excerpt from the eBook
Explainer — If China Invades Taiwan: Aftermath Scenarios
A Mainland China invasion of Taiwan would shake global markets, small businesses, and lives on Main Street
The essays in the series examine specific dimensions of this power shift: China’s dominance in rare earth minerals that gives Beijing leverage over American technology and defense industries; the manufactured narrative about AI competition with China that serves Silicon Valley interests more than national security; the semiconductor supply chain dependencies that create mutual vulnerabilities; and the broader pattern of Trump’s policies systematically strengthening China’s strategic position while claiming to oppose Chinese power.
I also pay particular attention to Taiwan, where the coalition that might deter Chinese action on Taiwan is eroding in exactly the way the ancient pattern predicts: allies questioning whether coordination serves their interests when the hegemon (that is, America) treats them as problems rather than partners.
Trump’s trade wars, alliance disruptions, and rejection of multilateral frameworks are accomplishing for China what Chinese diplomacy alone could never have achieved. Chapters in the compilation explore the rupture in their international order:
Table of Contents
Introduction
How to Lose Friends and Empower China
Why This Is China’s Century
If China Invades Taiwan: Aftermath Scenarios
China’s Rare Earth Chokehold
Tech’s Fake AI Competition with China
Silicon Standoff: U.S.-China Tech Clash Increases Markets and Mainstreet Risk
China Tariff Tipping Point: The Bullwhip Effect
Trump’s China Tariff Rout: Not the Right Stuff
Chip Wars with China: U.S. Allies Untrusted
Trump’s Great Leap Forward: Making China Great Again
Pissing off the Dragon: Trump Tariffs and Vance Vexes China
Sources
The lesson from history is clear: empires don’t just fall. They are replaced by coalitions their own hostility makes possible.
About the Author
I lived and worked in China as an international market entry consultant for American and European companies for 11 years during the country’s “opening up” period, from 2003-2014.
I’ve written several books about technology, society, and geopolitics. I am a former columnist for several technology-, business- and economics-magazines about international business and management.
My journalistic work in China includes the books:
China Fast Forward: The Technologies, Green Industries and Innovations Driving the Mainland’s Future (John Wiley & Sons, 2012)
and
China Inside Out: 10 Irreversible Trends Reshaping China (John Wiley & Sons, 2010)
My columns in international magazines include:
China Economic Review (Energy and Environment column)
ChinaBiz Forum (International Markets Entry and Management), a publication of the EU Chamber of Commerce in China)
MBusiness (American Management Association, column on International Business)
CHaINA Magazine (column on international supply chain issues)
